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Canada

Kitchener—Conestoga


MP: Tim Louis (LPC)

Latest projection: June 29, 2025
Toss up LPC/CPC

Recent electoral history | Kitchener—Conestoga


2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 49% ± 8% 39.8% 38.3% 48.3% CPC 46% ± 8% 38.4% 37.6% 47.5% NDP 3% ± 3% 10.1% 11.9% 2.9% PPC 1% ± 2% 1.5% 7.2% 1.3% GPC 0% ± 0% 10.2% 4.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.




338Canada projection for Kitchener—Conestoga


Kitchener—Conestoga 49% ± 8% LPC 46% ± 8% CPC 3% ± 3% NDP LPC 2025 48.3% 338Canada vote projection | June 29, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kitchener—Conestoga 65%▼ LPC 35%▲ CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 29, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Kitchener—Conestoga

LPC 49% ± 8% CPC 46% ± 8% NDP 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Kitchener—Conestoga 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 51% LPC 23% NDP 14% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 50% LPC 25% NDP 13% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 50% LPC 25% NDP 13% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 47% LPC 28% NDP 13% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 46% LPC 31% NDP 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 45% LPC 34% NDP 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 43% LPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 42% LPC 38% NDP 9% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 43% LPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 42% LPC 39% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 42% CPC 41% NDP 8% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 42% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 43% CPC 40% NDP 8% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 45% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 45% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 46% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 47% CPC 39% NDP 6% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 46% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 48% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 49% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 49% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 49% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 50% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 51% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 50% CPC 39% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 51% CPC 42% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 51% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 53% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% CPC 41% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 48% CPC 43% NDP 6% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 3% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 3% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 48% CPC 48% NDP 3% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 48% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 49% CPC 47% NDP 3% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 49% CPC 46% NDP 3% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Kitchener—Conestoga

LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP June 29, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% NDP <1% LPC <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 95% LPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 85% LPC 15% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 CPC 75% LPC 25% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 CPC 82% LPC 18% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 CPC 67% LPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 56% CPC 44% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 66% CPC 34% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 64% CPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 77% CPC 23% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 83% CPC 17% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 86% CPC 14% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 89% CPC 11% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 93% CPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 90% CPC 10% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 94% CPC 6% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 97% CPC 3% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 95% CPC 5% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 78% CPC 22% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 54% CPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 2025-06-01 LPC 55% CPC 45% NDP <1% 2025-06-01 2025-06-08 LPC 57% CPC 43% NDP <1% 2025-06-08 2025-06-15 LPC 62% CPC 38% NDP <1% 2025-06-15 2025-06-22 LPC 67% CPC 33% NDP <1% 2025-06-22 2025-06-29 LPC 65% CPC 35% NDP <1% 2025-06-29 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader